The Palin Pick

When I first watched McCain announce the pick last Friday I thought: gimmicky, sad, pathetic. I thought: does he really think that Hillary supporters will wantonly cast their vote for a Republican with virtually no experience simply because she is a woman? I thought: why not pick Lieberman, which could genuinely excite some moderates into voting for a joint ticket? I thought: won't many women find this insulting? I thought: they have no chance of winning.

What do I think of the pick now? I think it was politically ingenious, incredibly clever, and ultimately brilliant. In a way, she is the Obama of the ultraconservative right: she is wonderful in front of a teleprompter, and greets feigning crowds of ardent supporters everywhere she travels. She has a story that people love, even if it is a hollow shell filled with several empty intangible concepts tacked together (she is a "moose-hunting" "hockey mom" with "small town values"--how does any of this relate to running the country?). She is loved by conservatives because, in a sense, she is the anti-Obama: his "foreignness" contrasts with her seeming familiarity, his alleged "cosmopolitan elitism" with her "small town populism", his soaring rhetoric with her sarcastic jabs, his positivity with her negativity.

The question is: did the McCain campaign really know that this would happen? Did they know that the media would pounce all over Palin, and that this media reaction could be spun in their favor? Did they know that she would be such a good public speaker? Did they know how quickly the extreme right would embrace her? Did they know that her speech would be a hundred times more effective than his? Did they have any idea that she would gather Obama-like crowds and spurn millions of dollars in donations? If they did, then they are better campaign managers than the last few months would have suggested. If not, then they got lucky.

Either way, what I ultimately take from the Palin pick is this--I cannot think of a single way that McCain could have won this election if he hadn't picked this woman. If he had picked Pawlenty or Romney, the convention would have been a snooze-fest. If he had picked Lieberman, there would have been a conservative revolt against him. With this pick, at least he has a chance, albeit a not-so-great chance, of winning. But what about governing? I guess McCain will worry about that one later.